Ammonium Sulfate: Beware Of High Risk

As of October 9, the domestic ammonium sulphate market price rose to 580~640 trillion yuan (t price, the same below), or 7% per cent above, and part of the upward trend in the region. This is since September since the start of the continuous round of rally. End of the fertilizer in the autumn, winter has not yet started, differences in the industry began. According to the China chemical industry news reporter, national day after traders focused on procurement has come to an end, most manufacturers in a State of low inventories. Increase in downstream order, manufacturers chasing a very strong intention. Veterans said the recent large export-dependent, can result in increased uncertainty, coupled with the recovery of domestic demand is still not to force and merchants of negative factors such as inventory would be more profit-taking should be wary of future high ammonium sulfate. However due to limited current marketable goods, high is not likely to fall sharply, while trading volumes without amplification, and will not appear again the sharp rise in May.

Export dependence greater uncertainties increase

According to statistics, August Chinese exports of ammonium sulfate to 544,400 tons, rose 85.4%, an increase of 115.2%. While in the military parade, double background, production enterprises and limited production, production and integrated in September caused tight supply, which is triggered in September the main motive of this continuous rally.

According to a trader said Jiangsu in September, most of the sources into the merchants warehouse, and plans in October exports, export is expected to exceed 600,000 tonnes, more than 85% of total domestic production. Once the export plan as scheduled, condition for its domestic currency supply will remain tight, which is the main support factor of the market will remain high.

However, due to the large export proportion of domestic output, once the outer disc change or port transportation, demand and other adverse factors, will make a great impact on the domestic market, which is more concerned about high in the industry will become one of the main reasons. Therefore, the attention paid to the ammonium sulphate exports this month, beware of high risk.

Recovery not to force high domestic demand continued rising resistance

It is understood that the fertilizer industry recovery since September 1 with value added tax, supported by rising costs, manufacturers and dealers in late August in order to avoid the additional costs, in front of the ammonium sulphate prices active orders. Fertilizer plant in early September began to pull up quotations, so September ammonium sulfate factory shipped are mostly early orders. While under the influence of complex VAT, rising market transaction value shrank, but October export orders demand, fertilizer companies in price rises after the single is not much, traders make up a single poor enthusiasm, manufacturer to ship a little pressure.

Shandong, Anhui and other fertilizer companies said by late fall fertilizer, had winter not to influence now load is not high. While the current industry did not achieve the expected operating rate, so the October market demand relatively weak support.

Another reporter learned from the caprolactam business in October, and new capacity on the market. If increased supply of ammonium sulfate, the future continue to rise will also form a certain resistance, likelihood of high and volatile.

Merchants stock would be more focused on shipping will be bad

Reporters from Liaoning, Shandong and other places learned merchants, merchants at the port at present substantial increase in inventory, to mainly export orders in October and some fertilizer companies. According to the stock plan, traders big purchase is unlikely for the time being. Manufacturers market transactions occur high prices and merchants resisted long and short standoff, the domestic market also appear throughout differentiation.

As parts of Shandong, Shanxi has signs of weakness in the market, and sold well in the Northeast, and the price is firm. Mainly due to the weather, winter is still some time away in the South, has no major purchase plans, began early in the Northeast had winter plans, leading to hot and cold differentiation in the regional market. But port from the current inventory situation, these stocks if they can successfully export, there would be no pressure on the domestic market, whereas weak exports, one-way concentrate shipments from the Mainland may hit the market, leading to market highs, which is currently the major cause of market caution.

Views: potential of the market pressure reduction

Shandong Hong ye chemical group business analysis department name: consists of by-product of caprolactam, ammonium sulfate by-product of the coking plant, where the caprolactam ammonium sulfate production focused production as well. More recent caprolactam production of new devices, the overall operating rate of less than 60%. Shandong Haili, Shijiazhuang chemical fiber, Luxi chemical, Shandong Fangming chemical caprolactam ammonium sulfate produced accounting for a major share of the northern market. Shijiazhuang, Shandong Fangming, Luxi chemical prices in 700~720 (ton, the same below) manufactured cash; less Shandong Haili quality, factory price for 670~700 Yuan. Coking-grade ammonium sulfate 680~700 factory in mid-September highs all the way down to 600~620 Yuan on October 7, grade caprolactam ammonium sulphate formed in the mind of the market pressure, pressure trend hardly be minimized.

Enterprise or reduced price

Analyst Xu Lijuan ammonium sulfate: under the influence of tax policies, fertilizer season earlier than those of wheat this year to the end of August, September, new deal a few, mainly to shipping. After mid-September, the domestic fertilizer fertilizers draw to a close in the fall, manure and enterprise operating rate fell steadily, curbed purchases of ammonium sulfate. Although some traders raising prices, but lower demand not to force, ammonium sulphate market weakness fade. Before the national day holiday, intention to lower downstream operations, procurement of light. Section to clear inventory and some Coke and enterprises intent clear, let the ship active. Before the bad atmosphere filled with ammonium sulfate market, weak downturn depressed demand caused by high prices. Shandong hualu-hengsheng coking ammonium sulphate prices September 29 20, we offer 500 Yuan. On September 30, the black cat coking down 30 yuan, we offer 550 Yuan. Some high-end shipment for the order. Short term domestic market ammonium sulphate or disadvantaged, and there is some possibility of price.